SoS in Disasters: Why following the manual can be a mistake

According to both the US Geological Survey and the World Bank, $280 billion dollars could have been saved if$40 billion dollars had been invested in disaster prevention. Natural and human-made disasters that have occurred over the last few years show that there is a gap in disaster prevention caused by the interconnected nature of risks, which cannot be foreseen with current risk management methods. In this paper we point out how disaster management could benefit from a SoS approach in emergency response and preparedness strategies. Using recent disasters as case studies, we identify some keys to success in managing a SoS in preparation, during and in the aftermath of a disaster. In particular, we discuss the idea of the interconnectedness of risks in independent and interdependent systems and the application of Boardman and Sauser’s concept of “creative disobedience”, which are fundamental for goal achievement of systems belonging to a SoS

Quasi-periodic pulsations in solar and stellar flares: re-evaluating their nature in the context of power-law flare Fourier spectra

The nature of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar and stellar flares remains debated. Recent work has shown that power-law-like Fourier power spectra, also referred to as 'red' noise processes, are an intrinsic property of solar and stellar flare signals, a property that many previous studies of this phenomenon have not accounted for. Hence a re-evaluation of the existing interpretations and assumptions regarding QPP is needed. Here we adopt a Bayesian method for investigating this phenomenon, fully considering the Fourier power law properties of flare signals. Using data from the PROBA2/LYRA, Fermi/GBM, Nobeyama Radioheliograph and Yohkoh/HXT instruments, we study a selection of flares from the literature identified as QPP events. Additionally we examine optical data from a recent stellar flare that appears to exhibit oscillatory properties. We find that, for all but one event tested, an explicit oscillation is not required in order to explain the observations. Instead, the flare signals are adequately described as a manifestation of a power law in the Fourier power spectrum, rather than a direct signature of oscillating components or structures. However, for the flare of 1998 May 8, strong evidence for the existence of an explicit oscillation with P ~ 14-16 s is found in the 17 GHz radio data and the 13-23 keV Yohkoh HXT data. We conclude that, most likely, many previously analysed events in the literature may be similarly described in terms of power laws in the flare Fourier power spectrum, without the need to invoke a narrowband, oscillatory component. As a result the prevalence of oscillatory signatures in solar and stellar flares may be less than previously believed. The physical mechanism behind the appearance of the observed power laws is discussed.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa

They are Small Worlds After All: Revised Properties of Kepler M Dwarf Stars and their Planets

We classified the reddest ($r-J>2.2$) stars observed by the NASA $Kepler$ mission into main sequence dwarf or evolved giant stars and determined the properties of 4216 M dwarfs based on a comparison of available photometry with that of nearby calibrator stars, as well as available proper motions and spectra. We revised the properties of candidate transiting planets using the stellar parameters, high-resolution imaging to identify companion stars, and, in the case of binaries, fitting light curves to identify the likely planet host. In 49 of 54 systems we validated the primary as the host star. We inferred the intrinsic distribution of M dwarf planets using the method of iterative Monte Carlo simulation. We compared several models of planet orbital geometry and clustering and found that one where planets are exponentially distributed and almost precisely coplanar best describes the distribution of multi-planet systems. We determined that $Kepler$ M dwarfs host an average of $2.2 \pm 0.3$ planets with radii of 1-4$R_{\oplus}$ and orbital periods of 1.5-180 d. The radius distribution peaks at $\sim 1.2R_{\oplus}$ and is essentially zero at $4R_{\oplus}$, although we identify three giant planet candidates other than the previously confirmed Kepler-45b. There is suggestive but not significant evidence that the radius distribution varies with orbital period. The distribution with logarithmic orbital period is flat except for a decline for orbits less than a few days. Twelve candidate planets, including two Jupiter-size objects, experience an irradiance below the threshold level for a runaway greenhouse on an Earth-like planet and are thus in a "habitable zone".Comment: MNRAS, in press. Tables 1, 3, and 4 are available in electronic form in the "anc" director

Two Wide Planetary-mass Companions to Solar-type Stars in Upper Scorpius

At wide separations, planetary-mass and brown dwarf companions to solar-type stars occupy a curious region of parameter space not obviously linked to binary star formation or solar system scale planet formation. These companions provide insight into the extreme case of companion formation (either binary or planetary), and due to their relative ease of observation when compared to close companions, they offer a useful template for our expectations of more typical planets. We present the results from an adaptive optics imaging survey for wide (~50–500 AU) companions to solar-type stars in Upper Scorpius. We report one new discovery of a ~14 M_J companion around GSC 06214−00210and confirm that the candidate planetary-mass companion 1RXS J160929.1−210524 detected by Lafrenière et al. is in fact comoving with its primary star. In our survey, these two detections correspond to ~4% of solar-type stars having companions in the 6–20 M_J mass and ~200–500 AU separation range. This figure is higher than would be expected if brown dwarfs and planetary-mass companions were drawn from an extrapolation of the binary mass function. Finally, we discuss implications for the formation of these objects

Polarization observables in the longitudinal basis for pseudo-scalar meson photoproduction using a density matrix approach

The complete expression for the intensity in pseudo-scalar meson photoproduction with a polarized beam, target, and recoil baryon is derived using a density matrix approach that offers great economy of notation. A Cartesian basis with spins for all particles quantized along a single direction, the longitudinal beam direction, is used for consistency and clarity in interpretation. A single spin-quantization axis for all particles enables the amplitudes to be written in a manifestly covariant fashion with simple relations to those of the well-known CGLN formalism. Possible sign discrepancies between theoretical amplitude-level expressions and experimentally measurable intensity profiles are dealt with carefully. Our motivation is to provide a coherent framework for coupled-channel partial-wave analysis of several meson photoproduction reactions, incorporating recently published and forthcoming polarization data from Jefferson Lab.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figure

A simple tool to predict admission at the time of triage

Aim To create and validate a simple clinical score to estimate the probability of admission at the time of triage. Methods This was a multicentre, retrospective, cross-sectional study of triage records for all unscheduled adult attendances in North Glasgow over 2 years. Clinical variables that had significant associations with admission on logistic regression were entered into a mixed-effects multiple logistic model. This provided weightings for the score, which was then simplified and tested on a separate validation group by receiving operator characteristic (ROC) analysis and goodness-of-fit tests. Results 215 231 presentations were used for model derivation and 107 615 for validation. Variables in the final model showing clinically and statistically significant associations with admission were: triage category, age, National Early Warning Score (NEWS), arrival by ambulance, referral source and admission within the last year. The resulting 6-variable score showed excellent admission/discharge discrimination (area under ROC curve 0.8774, 95% CI 0.8752 to 0.8796). Higher scores also predicted early returns for those who were discharged: the odds of subsequent admission within 28 days doubled for every 7-point increase (log odds=+0.0933 per point, p&#60;0.0001). Conclusions This simple, 6-variable score accurately estimates the probability of admission purely from triage information. Most patients could accurately be assigned to ‘admission likely’, ‘admission unlikely’, ‘admission very unlikely’ etc., by setting appropriate cut-offs. This could have uses in patient streaming, bed management and decision support. It also has the potential to control for demographics when comparing performance over time or between departments.</p

Synthesizing Imperative Programs from Examples Guided by Static Analysis

We present a novel algorithm that synthesizes imperative programs for introductory programming courses. Given a set of input-output examples and a partial program, our algorithm generates a complete program that is consistent with every example. Our key idea is to combine enumerative program synthesis and static analysis, which aggressively prunes out a large search space while guaranteeing to find, if any, a correct solution. We have implemented our algorithm in a tool, called SIMPL, and evaluated it on 30 problems used in introductory programming courses. The results show that SIMPL is able to solve the benchmark problems in 6.6 seconds on average.Comment: The paper is accepted in Static Analysis Symposium (SAS) '17. The submission version is somewhat different from the version in arxiv. The final version will be uploaded after the camera-ready version is read

Educational Returns, ability composition and cohort effects : theory and evidence for cohorts of early-career UK graduates

An increase over time in the proportion of young people obtaining a degree is likely to impact on the relative ability compositions (i) of graduates and non-graduates and (ii) across graduates with different classes of degree award. In a signalling framework, we examine the implications of this on biases across cohorts in estimates of educational returns. In an empirical analysis, we exploit administrative data on whole populations of UK university students for ten graduate cohorts to investigate the extent to which early labour market outcomes vary with class of degree awarded. Consistent with our theoretical model, we find that returns by degree class increased across cohorts during a period of substantial graduate expansion. We also corroborate the empirical findings with evidence from complementary data on graduate sample surveys.Educational Returns ; College Wage Premium ; Degree Class ; Ability Bias ; Statistical Discrimination